The writer Martin Amis in Tuesday's Guardian about the perverse logic of this almost inevitable totally pointless war:

P.S. Slate magazine's Saddameter indicating the probability of a war against Iraq is on 99% right now.

I think it is rather obvious that Germany cannot participate in a preemptive war nowadays. Within hundred years time a civilised country cannot lead two wars of aggression. This time we Germans have to show our virtuous side. Our barbaric face is still not forgotten in too many countries.

Additionally Schröder who is known as an opportunist in Germany has to show to his electors and especially to himself that he is consequent. He won the elections with the peace stance and now he has to assume it. Schröder's home policy has been a disaster. His last chance is the field of foreign policy. That is the reason why he is so undiplomatic and stubborn. The Patriot rockets are defensive weapons. It really wasn't necessary to refuse them to Turkey.

Bush's home policy hasn't been too successful neither I think. A short and successful war in Iraq would divert from the not so bright domestic situation.

Bush and Hitler have got at least two things in common.

1. They are/were both full of complexes. Bush is an alcoholic and has been the black sheep of the family before his presidency; Hitler was a failed painter. Therefore they have/had a lot to compensate.
2. Both of them strive/strove for world domination. The reasons are/were probably different but the idea of the US as the world's sheriff isn't too far from the German "Am deutschen Wesen soll die Welt genesen" (the German nature shall cure the world).

Bush's stance nevertheless has a big psychological advantage over Hitler's. Bush can always argue that he is only reacting. The terrorists of 9/11 started the war and the US is only defending against them. But the problem with the war against terror is that the enemy is invisible. The enemy can be everywhere. Maybe even in Iraq. And in case he is in Iraq why not bomb Iraq as nobody cares anyway. That's what Bush and his administration thought in the beginning. They didn't foresee the strong opposition in parts of Europe.

Finally I suppose it is not too bold to predict that in one year's time either Schröder or Bush will probably be gone. It's a little bit a fight between David and Goliath and you know what happened in the bible. The odds are not too bad for Schröder actually. If Bush does not attack Iraq now Saddam will laugh about him. That would be Bush's end. He would need a very good reason not to attack. For example an exiled or a dead Saddam. That would definitely be the best way out of the current crisis. Bush would have won by points and Schröder could stay. If Bush attacked with the approval of the UN security council it would be Schröder's knock-out. He would have isolated Germany totally. In the case of an attack without the approval of the security council there would be quite some turmoil in the world. New alliances would form and the future world peace would be more in peril after the Iraq war than it was before. Probably Bush would not survive such a proceeding politically as an interior opposition in the US should gain momentum.

P.S.

1. I hope this was my last post on politics for a while.
2. Don't ask me about the title. Ask David Byrne.

Awesome cover page of Libération today A projection.

The Big Lie Interessante nonkonformistische Gedanken von Adam Curry (US-stämmiger Fernseh- und Radiomoderator, der in Amsterdam lebt und dort mehrere Medienprojekte gestartet hat) zu Pim Fortuyn und zu der fragwürdigen Medienberichterstattung über seine Ermordung. War er nun ein extremer Rechter oder nicht? Glaubwürdiger als Le Pen, Haider, Berlusconi und Konsorten war er in jedem Fall. Und toleranter als der von ihm angeprangerte Islam wohl auch. Ein Satz wie: "Wie können Sie eine Kultur respektieren, wo die Frau einige Schritte hinter ihrem Mann gehen muss, in der Küche zu bleiben und ihren Mund zu halten hat?" ist zumindest nachvollziehbar, insbesondere von einem Schwulen. Denn Homosexuelle wurden von Muslimen als "niedriger als Tiere" bezeichnet. Fortuyn war sicherlich eine interessante schillernde Figur mit Charisma, die sich getraut hat Dinge zu sagen, die die meisten sowieso denken, die aber nicht immer politically correct waren. Davon gibt es wenige in der Politik und in Zukunft wohl noch weniger. Wäre ich eine, dann würde ich es mir jedenfalls zweimal überlegen in die Politik zu gehen. Politik ist lebensgefährlich für solche Leute. Stromlinienförmige umfragebesessene Typen wie Schröder und GW Bush, die ohne ihre Berater Schaufensterpuppen wären, sind da wohl einfach besser aufgehoben.

Edited translation to English from Babelfish: Interesting nonconformistic thoughts by Adam Curry (television and radio moderator, stemming from the US and living in Amsterdam, where he has started several media ventures) on Pim Fortuyn and the dubious media coverage of his murder. Was he extreme right-wing or not? He was in any case more credible than Le Pen, Haider, Berlusconi and the likes. And he was almost certailnly more tolerant than the islam he denounced. A sentence like: "How can you respect a culture if the woman has to walk several steps behind her man, has to stay in the kitchen and keep her mouth shut?" is at least comprehensible especially when said by a gay. Gays have been proclaimed as "lower than pigs" by muslims. Fortuyn was surely an interesting multi-faceted figure with charisma. He dared to say things, most thought anyways, which were however not always politically correct. There are few politicians like that and probably even less in the future. If I would be one, then I would think twice before going into politics. Politics can be lethal for such people. Streamlined poll-obsessed guys such as Schroeder and GW Bush who would be dummies without their advisor stuff are probably much better suited for politics.

Today's philosophical quotation "America is Rome reincarnate. Like the Roman empire, the American empire is vastly powerful and unfathomably corrupt. Like Rome, America imposes her civilisation upon an ungrateful world. Like Rome, America needs bread, circuses and philosopher-statesmen to forestall and yet to hasten her demise." Lou Marinoff --The Philosophers' Magazine, Summer 1998

Let's hope that America won't finish like Rome. Or would you be looking forward to the Middle Ages?

What the fuck? In an USA today interview Defense Secretary Rumsfeld says

• that bin Laden will maybe never be found
• that the Taliban regime will be toppled
• that the US should not be made responsible for Afghanistan's future government

Am I dreaming or what? What was all the bombing for? I thought its whole purpose was to get hold of bin Laden. Now Rumsfeld suddenly realises that "If he were gone tomorrow, the same problem would exist". And what is the point of getting rid of the Taliban when the US does not care who comes after? Sorry this is not a war anymore. In a war there are objectives. There is cold reasoning. Here there is nothing. Only bullshit. A pointless killing of innocent civillians. The terrorists of 911 have succeeded logic has won. The US reaction is now on the same level as the terrible attacks. Rumsfeld uttered: "Yes, I think there will be a post-Taliban Afghanistan" I say: Only if you stop destroying the country very soon. Otherwise there will be a big hole where there once was Afghanistan.

I suspected it before. Now I am sure. The US is governed by a dummy advised by headless chicken (except Powell). That is really reassuring, isn't it? It would be all right if we were all lemmings. Are we not?

FBI erwägt Inhaftierte zu foltern Die Welt ändert sich nach 911. Aber nicht immer zum Guten. Wenn die USA dies wirklich tun werden, dann sind sie kein Stück besser als Israel und die islamischen Diktaturen. Die Aufgabe von Kants kategorischem Imperativ ist die Bankrotterklärung des Humanismus. Und sie wird zurückschlagen auf uns. Das Zeitalter der Barbaren rückt näher.

There is something rotten in the United States I can just understand that the WTC towers have been destroyed. But not the Pentagon. Where was the radar system? Any airplane coming too close to the Pentagon should have been shot down immediately. The Pentagon as the nucleus of the military strength of the only remaining superpower must have been the best defended building in the world. What was all this talk about the son of star wars if the US are not even able to put a shield over the Pentagon? I get more and more the impression that the US are just looking for a scapegoat outside of the country. It is a terrible suspicion but it must be legitimate to be outspoken: It could very well be that parts (probably a network of spies) of the CIA are involved in the attacks. The terrorists must have had very sensitive informations to carry out their plot. All the accusations against Bin Laden have never been really substantiated. It all seems speculation. The list of Arab suspects who were in the death planes with at least one person who had nothing to do with it and is still alive (who had reported the loss of his passport a couple of years ago) is 100% dubious. And now Mohammed Atta one of those suspects has supposedly met Iraq intelligence services. To me all these speculations and misinformations seem to be red herrings. Why are there hardly any news on the total failure of the American defense system? That cannot be an accident.

Blogging and reading blogs has become such an idle exercise in the past days. I can't do it. There are no words appropriate for what has happened. Too much empty talk and speculation. There seems to be a terrible equilibrium between the aggressors and the attacked. Both still think in these stupid categories of the good and the bad. The American president who used to be the most powerful person in the world has no clue of what is happening. I feel more qualified as president than him. We are governed by puppets. What can you expect of a dummy? Just a crash.